This post uses publicly available data and does not divulge private MERA25 political strategy details. The purpose of this post is informational: to provide additional perspective on the 2023 Bremen state election, and to provide insights to future MERA25 campaigns in a way that cannot be used against us or by our competition.
In part one you recommended focusing resources on districts of greater overall population that also have a significant number of voters of our key demographic. Got any numbers to back that suggestion up?
Yes, and thanks for asking. Let’s start by looking at the total votes cast by district. We’ll notice that only half of our focus districts (Neustadt, Östliche Vorstadt, Mitte, and Findorff) are in the top 5 districts by population, meaning that if my suggestion holds water and that we invested equivalently into our four key districts, half our investments were sub optimal.
Now the next step is to try and understand how the outcome would’ve been different had we invested resources into Schwachhausen and Hemelingen (as we might’ve, had we used our new strategy of a key demographic composition/population count/voting history triad) instead of Mitte and Findorff. To do this, let’s look at how other small parties fared in Schwachhausen and Hemelingen.
What we see here is that MERA25 received 1.745% more of the small party vote in districts we focused on compared to those we didn’t. That may not sound like much, but remember, these districts cast an average of 92,396 votes per district, so that’s another 1,612 votes for us per district, for a total of 3,224 extra votes. Divesting these resources from Mitte and Findorff may have cost us a few hundred votes in those districts, but we were only 3,062 votes shy of 1% of the total vote, and this strategy may very well have resulted in us being in the single digits instead of decimals.
Wow, it sure seems like at our scale, every vote counts, and we can’t afford to waste a cent or lose a vote. Is there a model you’d propose we use to orient our strategy for the next election?
Yes, the KPV triad. Not the soviet machine gun, but the key demographic composition/population count/voting history triad. Combining these key factors, we can identify key districts and allocate our resources most efficiently by incorporating our local intel to determine the weight each corner should have, and then visualizing our data in a spider web chart, with our key districts having the greatest area.
Very interesting, thanks! Got anything else for us?
Any time, and yes, but that’ll have to wait for the next part, coming later this week. Stay tuned, and more soon!